So far this year I think my most hated new term is “The Great Rotation”.  Supposedly stocks are moving higher as money is flowing from the overpriced bond market and into equities.  Since the term has gone ballistic, also known as annoying, we decided to look into it.

Here is a chart from Google Trends showing how search volume has gone crazy. Until the past few months it barely existed although it was moving higher into year end but more on that in a minute. (Click on chart to enlarge)

Looking at the performance of stocks versus bonds we can see part of the reason why the term was becoming popular.  Without reading too much into it stocks were moving higher while bonds were moving lower…..most of the time. (Click on chart to enlarge)

While stocks have indeed been outperforming bonds over the past few months the other side of the case for “the great rotation” was that money was coming out of bonds and going into stocks.  Well thanks to the ICI we have data that allows us to look at this idea.  Stocks funds saw a large increase in assets of 5.2% from December to January but Bonds also saw in increase in assets. (Click on table to enlarge)

We are not sure exactly where the rotation is here so we then broke down the weekly data to see if we could discern this rotation pattern in the data.  Well what we found was that year end and beginning of the year investment trends have a strong seasonal pattern.  Want to guess what the pattern is?  If you said mixed into year end and positive at the beginning of the new year then you win.  Here is the weekly data for equities from the beginning of 2007 to now.  We decided to show data from the beginning of October through the end of February in order to give the rotation argument as much rope as it might need. While 2013 has definitely seen the largest January flows  since 2007, the reality is that every single January sees positive flows.  (Click on chart to enlarge)

What about bonds?  Well we already spoiled that surprise earlier with the ICI table so you know that bonds saw inflows but guess what we found?  If you said seasonality you win…again.  Not surprisngly the past seven years have seen net inflows to bonds the majority of the time but the flows are a lot smoother at the beginning of the year as investors obviously put a lot of money to work each and every January. (Click on chart to enlarge)

Here is a chart of the cumulative in and outflows for both equity and fixed income funds.  As you can see bond funds have been the asset gathering champions of the past 6+ years as they have seen huge net inflows almost the entire time. At the same time equity funds have been net asset losers.  What of course sticks out to us is that over the past little while equities have indeed made some inroads but that there is zero rotation going on. Let me repeat that-there is zero rotation going on.  (Click on chart to enlarge)

We know that we have not accounted for ETF’s, Closed End Funds, Hedge Funds, etc.  but from the data we have seen, with one exception, we are seeing the same thing.  Namely that equities are getting more more money but that fixed income is still getting net new money.  What is the one exception?  We have come to the conclusion that the vast majority of the new money has come from two places: money market funds and all the special one time dividends that got paid out at the end of last year in anticipation of higher dividend taxes this year.

If you want to call a slight drop in assets in money market funds a great rotation go ahead but just know that you are full of it.  Which gets us to our last point, this is all marketing.  I don’t know where this meme originated but we would put money on it being from an equity shop that was sick of losing assets both in absolute as well as relative terms while the fixed income guys were killing it over the past six years.  We have not seen a slew of advertisements for the rotation yet but here is a classic ad that you can refer to anytime your broker, advisor, etc. calls you up with a pitch so that you maintain a healthy degree of skepticism. (Click on ad to enlarge) 

Stocks can go up or down while bonds go up or down and there can be great reasons to buy or sell either but “The Great Rotation” is not one of them.

Happy Trading,

Dave@TheMacroTrader.com

http://TheMacroTrader.com

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Are you as sick of the term “Currency Wars” as we are?  The book by Jim Rickards is timely and definitely worth reading but these days the term has gotten out of control. It’s as if the media just found out about competitive devaluation.  If we look up “currency war” on Google Trends we get this chart showing that this is the second time the term has gotten out of hand. (Click on chart to enlarge)

Most of the fuss, we actually like the term hullabaloo, has been regarding Abe over in Japan and the Yen’s free fall against pretty much everything.  What is funny is that when you put this move into perspective the correct adjective goes from “war” to something closer to “heated discussion”.  Here is the USD/JPY from 1972-now. (Click on chart to enlarge)

Do you remember everyone getting mad at the 76% rise from almost 325 down to 75?  The Japanese must have been playing out their evil plot to make their exports less and less competitive right?  Maybe not.  What about the past 15 years or so.  Surely we would remember if the Yen was getting too expensive and the hullabaloo surrounding the huge rise right?  Well from 1998 to now the Yen is still up 34% from its 1998 low of 145. (Click on the chart below to enlarge)

What about the past six plus years?  If anything had happened in that time period we would certainly have had “currency wars” fresh in our heads right?  Once again the world, or at least the media, must have missed the meme as those evil folks at the BoJ kept taking the Yen 37% higher from 120 down to almost 75 against the USD. (Click on chart to enlarge)

Of course this meme didn’t really pick up steam until the current move where the Yen actually dropped 23% in five months. Apparently when the Yen is getting stronger the speed or magnitude does not matter but when it is getting weaker they are evil currency manipulators.  Is there a currency war going on?  The answer is of course yes.  Are the Japanese responsible for it? The answer is of course no, at least not any more that the rest of the central banks out there that do what their “economies need” even if the actions have direct implications in the currency markets. (Click on chart to enlarge)

Happy Trading,

Dave@TheMacroTrader.com

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Lately we have been doing some research into stock buybacks and have come to a few conclusions.

-Probably the most significant finding is that share buybacks, using data on the Russell 3000 universe,  have resulted in almost $3 Trillion in shares disappearing from the market.  Want to know why we have declining trading volumes over the past several years with NYSE average total volumes dropping -52%?  The first culprit is not HFT but instead the great shrinkage in shares outstanding. (Click on chart to enlarge)

-Between companies buying back their shares, private equity taking companies private, as well as natural selection (at least where the government allows it) and you have several reasons why trading volumes are lower. There is less trading volume because there is less to trade.

-Sadly one aspect of share buybacks that didn’t really come as a surprise was how poorly companies are at valuing their shares.  Warren B has said in the past that buying back shares can be a good thing as long as you are not overpaying.  Well based on this it is safe to say that corporate America is indeed no Warren B.  Management apparently found their companies woefully undervalued at the top in 2007 as they repurchased record amounts of stock and then woefully overvalued at the bottom in 2008.  (Click on chart to enlarge)

-It would seem as though many executives have a hard time figuring out how to spend their cash or the debt that they have raised.  Instead of investing in their businesses they have decided to just raise the earnings per share by taking shares out of the market.  If they were doing it when their stock was cheap it would be a good thing but instead it points, at least to us, as a lack of ideas for real growth.

-Another interesting though maybe not completely surprising thing we found is that the buyback phenomenon is entirely a large-cap thing.  When we pulled data for the Dow Industrial’s we found that those 30 companies accounted for 44% of all $3 Trillion that we saw in the Russell 3000.  (Click on chart to enlarge)

-Breaking it down a bit further we found that if you take the top 50 companies by capitalization in the Russell 3000 they account for 52% of all buybacks.  The smallest of the top 50 is Northrup Grumman which is a $15.8 Billion dollar company.  While some smaller companies do indeed buyback their shares it is largely a large-cap thing.

-Another interesting thing we are looking at is where the buybacks are occurring.  Breaking down the cumulative buybacks by sector we can see that technology and financials have seen the majority of the benefits while utilities, telecom, and materials have seen almost none of it. (Click on chart to enlarge)

Happy Trading,

Dave@TheMacroTrader.com

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We track volatility across asset classes and throughout this year, especially the second half, have been amazed and the consistent volatility compression across assets.  Here is our Average VIX where we take a simple average of several different volatility indices.  Right now we are sitting at levels last seen in mid-2007 and we are struck with the complacency in the marketplace.(Click on chart to enlarge)

Are the potential risks really so small that no one finds it worthwhile to buy protection?  A short list of potential risks would be the sovereign debt issues, fiscal cliff, Europe, Japan, China, Italy, Middle East, etc.,we can almost literally go on forever.  Our current list of risks is as high as it has ever been and yet volatility is getting lower and lower from already low levels.   While the Bernanke put has some power we question whether it is really the holy grail of safety nets.  Just something to think about as we watch European stocks breaking out and US equities moving higher while at the same time Treasuries continue to catch a bid.

Happy Trading,

Dave@TheMacroTrader.com

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While not quite as cool sounding as “the most interesting man in the world” the most overvalued currency could actually help you make money.  Interesting doesn’t pay like over/under valuation.  So what is the most overvalued currency in the G-10?  If you guessed the Australian Dollar you win.  Across pairs the AUD is consistently the most expensive currency and has been for a while.

Why is the AUD so overvalued?  They never had a housing crash like in the US and southern Europe, they have strong natural resources, up until this year investors kept believing that China can save all, and last but not least they had the highest short term interest rates in the G-10.  With high relative interest rates the AUD has been the carry trade of choice and consequently has been one of the go to “Risk On” trades since the 2008 crash.  How high have rates been relative to the rest of the G-10?  Below is a chart of G-10 90-day rates. (Click on chart to enlarge)

G-10 90-Day Interest Rates

Combined with the ZIRP or near ZIRP policies in most of the world the AUD has attracted a lot of money looking for yield.  Of course you then have to ask is this yield safe?  Judging from the slowdown in China and the drop in Australian interest rates we question the safety of this trade, of course we question anything that is considered safe.

So how overvalued is the AUD?  Well using PPP-purchasing price parity as our valuation gauge here are a few charts showing how extended it really is. Our first chart is of the EUR/AUD.  Here the AUD is “only” 20% overvalued.(Click on chart to enlarge)

 EUR/AUD PPP

Next up is the AUD/CAD.  Here you would think the relationship would be closer since the makeup of their economies is similar with commodities making up such a large part.  Of course Canada is tied to the US and Australia is tied to China.  Either way the AUD/CAD is overvalued to the tune of 27%.(Click on chart to enlarge)

 AUD/CAD PPP

 Looking at the AUD/JPY things continue to get worse as the Australian Dollar is overvalued against the Yen by 40%.(Click on chart to enlarge)

AUD/JPY PPP

Up last we have the worst case of overvaluation of the group.  The AUD/USD is ridiculous for several reasons but the one we are looking at today is that it is overvalued by over 50%.(Click on chart to enlarge)

AUD/USD PPP

 As you can see by the charts currencies have their share of value fluctuations but like most of finance things are rarely different and it is hard to fight reality forever.  Trading currencies based on valuations is not for the impatient as it can take months and even years for things to come back in line but as evidenced by the above charts once the pendulum starts to swing the other direction it tends to carry it for some time.  With China slowing down and the RBA in a rate easing cycle we think that the pendulum is ready to swing the other way.

*-We deal primarily in G-10 currencies. AUD is not the most overvalued currency on the planet, but is the most overvalued currency in the industrialized world.

Happy Trading,

Dave@TheMacroTrader.com

http://TheMacroTrader.com

Disclaimer-In our model portfolio we are short the AUD

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We have all seen a chart similar to the one below of the effects of QE on the stock market.  When the Fed is buying the market moves higher and when it sells it helps the market move lower.  Of course what we have all noticed, well everyone except for Buzz Lightyear at the Fed, is that each successive buy program has led to a smaller and smaller rise in the market.  So the question is with a zero interest rate policy and with an additional and infinite buy program in place, at what point do we decide that maybe it is alright to fight the Fed?  The more we look at it the more we think that their stance is sufficiently weakened that shorting may soon be, and indeed may already be, a viable option.

Looking at the situation from a smaller time frame the results are basically the same.  Here is a table showing how Fed buy days compare against sell days as well as all days for the SP500.  As you can see the out performance was fairly consistent since the end of August 2005.  If you bought the market at the open on the day of a POMO buy and sold at the close you outperformed by a wide margin.  If you held for 10 days you still were winning.

When we go to the latest finished action of operation twist however we can see that, like the large chart above shows, the effects of Fed buying have been drastically diminished.  Buy days still outperform the SP500 by a small margin but does not fare so well against the sell days.  Wen you take it out to 10 days the out performance is almost non-existent showing that Fed buying is not what it used to be.

All of this combined with out slowdown/recession forecast gives us more and more reason to look for shorting opportunities.  If we are entering an earnings led recession and the Fed’s efforts are falling on investors with less and less force than it is getting closer and closer to being safe to fight Buzz Lightyear Bernanke and the Fed.

Happy Trading,

Dave@TheMacroTrader.com

http://TheMacroTrader.com

Disclaimer-In our model portfolio we are long TLT.

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The majority of investors seem to hate them and the rest are shorting them.  While at some point shorting bonds will be a huge trade we think that the timing is still a ways off for the end of the 31-Year bond bull.  So what do bonds have going for them?  Well the most obvious and yet what seems to be the most overlooked is the simple trend.  Looking at the chart below you should ask yourself how many times have investors been convinced that rates were too low? (click on chart below to enlarge)

30-Year Treasury Yield

Aside from the trend we have the current situation with GDP growth of only 1.7% which is very slow for a so-called recovery, especially one that is five years along.  In addition we have very slow growth globally as Europe continues to blow up and we keep seeing estimates for China drop every month or two.  We have very slow global growth and this is showing in very low inflation data.  Yes, the central banks led by Helicopter Ben are juicing the system, hell I hear Ben is dressing up as Buzz Lightyear for Halloween so he can say “QE to infinity and beyond” but the fact is that despite their best efforts inflation remains muted.

In a world of extremely slow growth and chronically low inflation we would expect Treasuries to do well and lo and behold they have.  Since QE1 was announced November 25th 2008 we have seen 30-Yr yields drop from 3.632% to 2.988% and the 10-Yr dropped from 3.092% all the way to 1.811%.  If this does not make it obvious that QE alone does not cause the bond market to crash then nothing will.  No, until we see stronger growth and a large pick up with inflation we expect fundamental picture to remain decent to strong for Treasuries.

Now of course we are going to get some people saying “but bonds are up too much”  our natural response would be something like WTF? but our more reasoned response would be compared to what?  Bonds have been up “too much” for the last 20 years.  Who would have ever thought that 5% 30-Yr interest rates would sound high?  Rates are low but they are a long ways from 0% which would indicate that they have room to go lower.  That said what does the technical picture look for bonds?  In the chart below we have our intermediate term 30-Yr Reversion to the Mean (RTM) chart.  While the RTM chart isn’t saying load the boat it is also not saying run for the hills as it is instead giving us an almost perfectly neutral reading which indicates that bonds have plenty of room to go up or down before reaching anything near an oversold/overbought point. (click on chart to enlarge)

30-Yr Treasury RTM

Finally, at least for now, is the sentiment picture.  We all know that volatility is one of the most mean reverting series in all of finance.  In the chart below we have the Treasury MOVE index vs the 30-Yr yield and then we have overlaid the 30-Yr yield with an inverse scale.  We inverted it so it is a better visual as to what happens to bond prices when the MOVE index is so low.  As you can see when Treasury volatility is really low it is usually a time to be buying bonds and when it is high is when you should be selling.  Well right now we are hovering close to the lows of the past five years indicating that bonds could take off at any time.  (click on chart to enlarge)

So is going long bonds the new trade of the century?  Nope not by a long shot.  Still that doesn’t meant that there isn’t a case to be made for being long.  The economic fundamentals are in place, unless you think we are the cusp of a huge growth spree.  The technical picture is saying that while its not a perfect buy there is plenty of room to run.  Finally sentiment/volatility are saying that the time in at hand for a renewed move higher in Treasury bonds.  Obviously we could be wrong but the risk reward is there.

Happy Trading,

Dave@TheMacroTrader.com

http://TheMacroTrader.com

Disclaimer-In our model portfolio we are long TLT, AGG, and FLAT.

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We were not planning on doing this post today but after a few conversation that I have had with people that consider themselves informed I thought that it would not hurt.

Oil is in the headlines again as both West Texas and Brent crude have been consistently over $100 for a while now.  Of course this isn’t the whole story as we are also in an election year.  The price at the pump matters more than normal around elections as voters like to blame or praise whoever is in power for any and everything that is going on.

This is a good time for a disclaimer-Some people might call me right of the right wing when it comes to personal views and voting.  When it comes to trading politics absolutely need to be put aside.  I take a pragmatic view of things and never confuse politics with policy.

Getting back to oil we keep hearing that when Obama came into office prices at the pump were so low.  Well that is a half truth.  As you can see in the chart below the price of Crude is in fact higher than when Obama took office.(Click on chart to enlarge)

What we never see however is what oil was doing before Obama took office.  If we pull up a 10-Year of crude we can see that not only was oil at its cycle lows when Obama came in but it had just dropped from its all time high of $150 a barrel.  Oh and do you remember why oil dropped like a rock?  There is a thing called demand destruction.  It tends to happen when the globe loses about a third of its wealth inside of a year.  Since then we have had a recovery, even if it has not been as robust as we would like, the central banks of the world have pumped in trillions of dollars into the global economy, the Middle East has been in its “Arab Spring” for over a year, and we still have no long term energy policy.(Click on chart to enlarge)

No energy policy?  Hah Obama must be doing this to us.  If he had that much power then unemployment would be at zero.  Fortunately the President while the most powerful man in the world is not that powerful.  Until the office of the Presidency includes some grand wizard of alchemy he, no matter which party he is in, will have that power.  Obama is responsible for higher prices only to the extent that he like his predecessors have failed to formulate any type of long term energy policy.  Just like the developed worlds central banks and their debt can, we keep kicking the energy can down the road as well.  T Boone Pickens is not lying when he says that every President since Nixon has declared that we will be energy independent and then has proceeded to do nothing.

So while there are definitely several shorter term issues driving oil such as the problems in Iran and current supply issues to both coasts, the biggest issue is that long term supply is not as strong as we once thought it to be.  Most of the world has always thought that Saudi Arabia would always be able to boost production in times of crisis.  Well as we saw when Libya had their revolution Saudi Arabia either does not have, or just doesn’t want to use, any spare supply.  That fear coupled with more immediate issues is what is keeping oil above $100 and what will likely keep it above $80 for a long time if not forever.  What’s that you say?  Saudi Arabia can never run out of oil you say?  In the chart below we present Middle East oil as a percentage of total global production.  As you can see their share of production has not moved since the late-eighties.(Click on chart to enlarge)

What about the rest of the world?  Brazil and Russia have a lot of oil don’t they?  Well to certain extent they do but that does not mean they have enough to supply the world or to make up for missing supply in times of war or crisis.  Here is a chart of global oil production along with the average annual price of crude oil.  As you can see during the entire rise in price, production levels were not able to rise to keep prices in line, or to further enrich whatever country has this huge hidden supply of oil the world seems to be banking on.(Click on chart to enlarge)

Getting back to the United States can’t we just drill our way out of this mess?  If we got rid of Obama we could drill everywhere and then we would have all the oil we would ever need.  As much as some pundits would want you to believe that the truth is that our oil production peaked back in 1970.  If in 40 years we have not been able to find enough oil to keep up with our demand then good luck finding all of this supposed oil today.  Yes, there is untapped oil but do you really think that it will be enough?  Peak oil people could be wrong and we could find Ghawar 2.0 in your backyard?(Click on chart to enlarge)

Oh but what about offshore production?  Can’t we just go drill of the coast of California?  They have already tried that and while they definitely did find some oil and some is not currently being pumped there was nothing to lead  oil experts to think that there were any mega-wells out there.  While on the subject what was happening to offshore oil drilling before the BP spill? Yes, as you can see in the chart below even before the spill oil production was dropping like its hot for almost five years.  Not only that but that is coming off levels not surpasses since 1995, an entire 15 years earlier.(Click on chart to enlarge)

So while Solyndra is obviously not the solution to anything, except how to lose taxpayer money, the President can not just wave a wand and have oil start seeping from the ground.  Global peak oil is as real as United States peak oil.  We are not working towards a long term solution which means that every time anything happens in the Middle East, Russia, or even Brazil the price of oil will rise.  Because of global energy uncertainty oil probably has a long term floor in the $80 area.

What can we do to change this?  Well some items that would fit into an energy policy would be natural gas, rail, solar, etc. But until we admit that oil doesn’t grow on trees we will continue to revisit the spot where we now stand and it will happen more often and probably with more force each time.  In our work and model portfolio we have a bias towards being long of energy as the long term risk reward is definitely slanted to the upside.

Happy Trading,

Dave@TheMacroTrader.com

http://TheMacroTrader.com

Disclaimer-In our model portfolio we are long OIL, XOP, and short some refiners.

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Disclaimer-This post is basically a rant.

By and large investors as a group are complete data junkies.  Over the years I have collected more data sets then I can count.  The idea of course is that the better and more complete data set you have for anything the better your investment decisions will be.  While results can obviously vary the basic idea holds true that you want, and really need, good accurate data.  Well over the past 30+ years data has been digitized as we have all moved to computers.  Luckily you do not need to use a spreadsheet which is nothing more than a paper with rectangle grids.  No, now we can, or at least should be able to download some data, put it in a spreadsheet, and easily manipulate it to hopefully find info that helps lead you to an idea.

Obviously data from “for profit” entities such as stock exchanges, investment banks, research firms, etc. can cost money and in most instances should.  When it comes to government data it should and for the most part is free.   Sadly however different agencies handle data drastically different.  We have the rockstars over at the St Louis Federal Reserve that run the phenomenal FRED service.  Honestly it is one of the best things to ever happen to the internet.  You can pull regular interest rate data from any data vendor but FRED takes it to a whole new level of data sets and usability.  Sick of going to the website?  Fine they have a great Excel plug-in that downloads and charts data like a champ.  Need data on population, Employment, & Labor Markets?  Well if you do FRED gives you 2,234 different data sets and since they are so awesome they are adding new data at least every few weeks.  Want to know how much soap, lubricants, waxes, polishing or scouring products; candles, and pastes we export?  Just type in “ID34″ and FRED will serve it up for you.  Yes, their data collecting goes all over the place.  So while FRED is not a Bloomberg it does an excellent job as does not cost a thing let alone 2k a month.

A lot of the data on FRED is collected by other agencies but lucky for us they have an understanding that allows them to provide it to us on the best data platform available in the entire United States government.  But guess what? Some government agencies have data on their sites that for whatever reason is not on the FRED system.  This of course is not necessarily a huge issue as you can just go to their site and get the data….right?  Well while technically true some sites suck.  Suck is actually too nice of a word but we are usually a PG site and never go past PG13, no string of F bombs at The Macro Trader.  What site is frustrating The Macro Trader right now?  If you have spent more than six seconds at Treasury.Gov you probably also contemplated throwing a monitor through a wall.  Possibly the hardest site to navigate on the entire freaking internet you almost start to wonder if they are trying to hide data.    It’s like they are living in 1999 on the AOL internet it is so bad.

It was not too long ago that they did not even provide data in an XLS or CSV spreadsheet compatible format.  Yes, we can download a TXT file and then import it into a Excel but come on this is 2012 not 1912.  Anyways once you are able to finally find the data you are looking for, and it can be a chore, you download it and then open it.  You then have to go through and copy, transpose, paste, and repeat while you make it into a usable format.  While having series of data presented horizontally works great when you are reading a release, it is a miserable thing when you are working with data.  It gets worse however when you then need to take each year out in order to connect multiple years, or depending upon the data pull out individual country data, put in in another sheet and then look up the country code so that you even know what you are looking at.

If all this sounds confusing then don’t ever go to the Treasury website.  There may be a treasure trove of information in TIC data but most people do not have the time to find it with the current mess that is the Treasury website.  What do I wish?  I wish that either all government data went to the FRED site or that every agency had to use the same data delivery program that they have built.  They are all supposed to be on the same team and it would make the data that they provide usable.

I could go on all day about some other data travesties, namely major cuts at the EIA a year ago but Gregor already covered that well.  The short version is that in an attempt to save some money the government cut funding for the agency that collects data info so that our government can make good policy decisions.  Consequently the EIA had to cut some of the data series and other parts of their program.  Of course most politicians don’t even care as they don’t want facts to get in the way of their agenda.

We here at The Macro Trader would love it if all of our fellow data junkies would call their elected representatives regarding the EIA and call the Treasury to express your disdain.  Most likely nothing will happen but we long for the days when TIC data doesn’t take a gazillion years to wade through and come up with anything useful.  We long for the days when energy data was plentiful.  For now we will of course get by but if you want productivity in the financial sector to go up a few percent give us data in an efficient manner.

Happy Trading,

Dave@TheMacroTrader.com

http://TheMacroTrader.com

P.S. If you are a subscriber and send us an e-mail we will send you cleaned up versions of many data sets.

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It has been a while since last time we posted on the blog but that does not mean that we have not been busy. We have been publishing our flagship weekly newsletter and have recently added a daily letter as well.

If you have not yet taken a trial and subscribed, here is our basic publishing schedule. Each Monday evening we send out our weekly letter.  Typically 20-30 pages it is chock full of commentary as well as a section devoted to proprietary and not so proprietary indicators that we find useful for different asset classes.  Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday mornings you will be receiving a 3-10 page daily letter with any model portfolio changes, items of interest, and interesting links.

In addition to the daily newsletter we have also added individual stock selection on both the long and short side to our model portfolio.  While we usually try and express our ideas via ETF/ETN’s the truth is that many times some individual names can do a lot better job.  Consequently we now include  ETF/ETN’s, options, and individual equities in our model portfolio.

As we all know there is no free lunch and consequently our rates will be headed higher.  For the next few days we will leave the $1 trials set at 4-Weeks and then will change them to 2-Week as you will get a solid feel for how we look at things with the greater publishing frequency.  When will rates go up?  Well to add a sense of urgency to this message, marketing experts say this is important, we will leave pricing alone for the next 100 subscribers after which it will go up.

Right now you can get a full year for $395, get a quarterly subscription for $124.95, or get a monthly subscription for $49.95 a month.  After we raise rates our yearly subscription will go to $595, quarterly to $174.95, and monthly to $74.95.  To take The Macro Trader for a spin just click HERE and choose your subscription option.  Everybody that is currently subscribed as well as the next 100 subscribers will of course be grandfathered in and continue with their subscription as is.

Happy Trading,

Dave@TheMacroTrader.com

http://TheMacroTrader.com

Take a $1 trial of The Macro Trader to receive unbiased actionable research.

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