Here at TheMacroTrader.com we use several different strategies across several asset classes. Why do we do this? For several reasons not the least of which is so that we can find and exploit as many of the best risk to reward situations as possible. If you tie yourself to one strategy or one asset class you are limiting your potential opportunites.

In this article we will focus on using systems. As we have already mentioned we use several systems. Some are purely automatic. If they say buy we will go and buy if they say to sell we will sell. We also have several systems that leave us a lot of discretion as to what we do. We look at many different variables depending on the asset class and time horizon. For instance in some of our short term systems we only use prices of the actual instrument to determine buys and sells. On some of our longer term systems we use economic data such as interest rates, market valuations, technical studies, inflation, competing yields, etc.

Right now we have several systems for domestic and foreign equities, domestic bonds (treasuries, corporates, and junk), precious metals, currencies, commodities, volatility trading, and asset allocation. All of the systems we use have historically beaten their benchmarks with less risk. So over time we can expect to outperform.

As noted earlier we also have systems that leave us with varying amounts of discretion. Some of the systems are only used to alert us of a potential trade. We then go in and look to see if we feel it is worth doing. For instance one of our systems is designed to highlight potential option trades across several different indexes. Its main variable is volatility. While we could possibly use it as a stand alone system at this point in time we think it is better used to highlight potential opportunities.

So how do we use it? We update it every week and most weeks it will show us a few different areas worth looking at. We than go in and research those potential trades to assess the situation. If the right conditions are present and we can see a catalyst we will then go in and put on the trade. If not we will continue monitoring the situation in case it changes. While we only put on about a third of the trades that it presents us we feel it is an invaluable tool because it highlights many situations that we would otherwise miss. To sum it up in one sentence it highlights promising situations. That is but one example of using a systematic process in our trading.

In summary using systematic processes in trading allow us to cover more asset classes and more countries. It allows us to spot more opportunities and to more consistently achieve above average and less correlated returns.

Happy Trading,

The Macro Trader

“I think the secret is cutting down the number of trades you make. The best trades are the ones in which you have all three things going for you: Fundamentals, Technicals, and Market Tone. If you can restrict your activity to only those types of trades, you have to make money, in any market, under any circumstances.”

-Michael Marcus

 

With Asia at new highs every week it was not a surprise when a client recently came to us asking where might be a good place to invest in Asia. Here are some of the things that we look for in potential investments.

Looking over different countries we give a lot of weight to the interest rate environment. Most of the countries in Asia currently have rising interest rates. China, Hong Kong, and South Korea being notable examples. Singapore on the other hand has had stable and low rates for a while now. Another trend right now worldwide is that almost half of the 45+ countries we track have inverted yield curves. Asia is an exception to that as well with only Indonesia and Hong Kong having inverted rates. Needless to say Singapore does not have inverted rates.

The next big factor that we look at is the stock index trend. We don’t fight the trend. Falling knife syndrome has been known to cause huge losses and we just aren’t into that. Looking at the EWS chart it is in a definite uptrend and while it is not at the start of the trend as long as other conditions are favorable such as monetary trends, valuations, etc. we will look to buy on pullbacks and consolidations.

Another major factor in the fundamentals of a country is if it has surplus or deficits. Twin surpluses are good and twin deficits are bad. Singapore is a twin surplus country. Unfortunately the United States is a twin deficit country.

Valuations come into play especially on a relative basis. We look at P/E, P/S, and P/B ratios. In this case the P/E of the EWS is 16.29 versus the SP500 P/E of 17.67. We like it when the country is valued at or below the SP500.

We also like good news about the country. Not things like “XYZ index next stop 1,000,000 but positive things about its business environment and other positive influences. Here is one such positive for EWS Singapore is ranked the easiest country in the world to start a business.

While we look at several other factors we feel these are the most important. If there is anything that you would like a sample of feel free to e-mail us at Editor@TheMacroTrader.com

Happy Trading,
The Macro Trader

Macro Trading has many benefits versus equities. As mentioned before a global macro trader can trade in any asset class, in any country, using any strategy. So what are the benefits of these freedoms? Well there are many but here we will focus on two of them. First is that using multiple asset classes, countries, and strategies we are able to get a more consistent stream of returns. When one asset class zigs one is zagging. If we blend them together well we can end up with a very steady stream of returns.

This chart shows $1000 invested in the Barclays Group Global Macro Index versus $1000 invested in the SP500 from the beginning of 1997 to the end of September 2007.

The other major benefit we will discuss here is that our risk profile is much better. The worst drawdown in the SP500 since 1997 was -46.28%. Now compare that to the Barclays Group Global Macro Index where your worst drawdown was only -5.22%.

Charts showing drawdowns for Macro Index and SP500 1997-September 2007

You can see that there is more than just a slight difference. Where the SP500 is more or less at breakeven for the past seven years the Macro Index has never taken longer than eight months to make a new high.

If you are only trading or investing in one asset class or if you are only trading in the United States please look at some of the benefits of adding some asset classes, countries, and trading strategies to your portfolio. Long term we think you will be happy you did.

Happy Trading,

The Macro Trader

At TheMacroTrader.com we view macro trading as a process of finding the best risk to reward situations on the planet. Instead of being put into a style box we are free to go to where the money is. Many money managers whether they run a mutual fund, hedge fund, are a proprietary trader, or even a retail investor box themselves into a corner by only looking at one or to asset classes and even than only looking at a segment of that.

For instance look at the Mutual Fund industry. Most funds have such a strict mandate that they can’t invest out of the United States and many even have limitations on the capitalization of the stocks they can buy. And then on top of all that most are not allowed to short or use derivatives. While doing all of this may help Morningstar put you in a style box we here at TheMacroTrader.com think that it limits yourself to potential opportunities and forces you to allocate your money to less than optimal risk to reward opportunities.

So in conclusion to us macro trading is being able to go anywhere in the world, trade any instrument, using any strategy. The objective of a global macro trader is to find the absolute best risk to reward situations on the globe.

Happy Trading,

The Macro Trader