Nothing really changed this week in our Equity Risk Index.  We are still only 12.50% bullish which of course means that we are very bearish.  When the index is this bearish we basically step aside or go short.  Right now there are some relative yield and sentiment indicators that are slightly bullish but not one model that we follow is actually on a buy signal.

We will continue to update our Equity Risk Index each week on the site.  Among our many proprietary tools that we use at The Macro Trader  we also have risk indexes for fixed income, precious metals, and currency markets.  If you have any questions feel free to e-mail us.  If you want to get the risk index as well as our other posts in your RSS reader just click on the RSS button on the right hand side of the page.  And of course if you have any questions regarding the newsletter simply shoot us an e-mail.

Happy Trading,

The Macro Trader

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Our Equity Risk Meter essentially measures how bullish or bearish we are towards the US Markets.   The higher the reading the less risk there is in the market and the lower it goes the more risk there is.

Right now for instance the meter is reading 12.5%, which is very bearish.  As you can see we have been bearish for some time now and very bearish since mid June, enabling us to avoid almost all of the downturn in the stock market.  When the meter starts to climb we become more and more bullish and look towards the longside.  For now we are essentially on the sidelines sitting in cash.

We will be posting our risk meter for US equities each week.  If you would like to follow it you can either come to the site each week or simply subscribe to our RSS feed.  Using RSS you will be able to either receive our posts as an e-mail or in your RSS reader.

Happy Trading,

The Macro Trader

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Hello,

While we have obviously not posted on the blog in a while we do write the newsletter every week and performance while not great has at least been positive.  We are up about 2% for the year and the SP500 is down around 30% as of this writing.

We are always working on different models, indicators, and of course trading ideas.  Recently we have been doing a lot of work on building a risk index and while it is far from perfect we think that it will add value to our process.  Starting next Monday we will be posting it every day for a week or two and then only sending it to RSS subscribers.

Our risk index currently looks at the different volatility indexes for US Equities, Foreign Equities,  Oil, Gold, G-7 currencies, and Emerging Market Currencies.  The model also looks at different credit indicators such as the TED Spread, other Fixed Income Spreads, and the slope of the Yield Curve.  Finally we include some information on where money is flowing into and out of.

We think most investors regardless of timeframe will find the daily report useful and again invite all of you to subscribe to our RSS feed.  You can select to see it in the RSS reader of your choice or in your e-mail.  Simply click on ‘RSS Posts’ over on the right and follow the simple instructions.

Happy Trading,

The Macro Trader

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