This week we had the first uptick in the equity risk index in a month. The primary reason that it moved up was due to some sentiment indicators such as the Investors Intelligence Bull Bear Ratio hitting levels that historically have provided good
Of course if you look at the chart you can tell that it is still very low. A low level in the risk index signifies a market that is very unattractive, whereas a very high level is bullish. Right now there is a ton of bad data out there and only a few things that are bullish. While we have not ruled it out we do not feel like this is the second coming. Eventually US Equities will start to look attractive again and we will allocate accordingly. We gauge risk first and then look at return.
The Macro Trader