After a 72% move higher in the SP500 a lot of bears are saying that the market has gone far enough and that we are due for a new crash that will take us back to and in some cases past the lows of 2008. While a crash is possible and probably justified we are instead looking for something along the lines of a modest pullback to maybe a 10% correction.
One of our favorite sentiment indicators is that of put/call ratios. We use the 5-day equity only put call ratio to warn of high risk areas and to point our low risk areas. As you can see in the chart below we are currently at a reading of .51 which is not only below out “high risk” threshold but is also the lowest reading in over a year. While the signal could be wrong it is hard to argue that options traders are not overly one sided right now.
5-Day Equity Put/Call Ratio and SP500
In case you want to see more bearish sentiment look no further than the 10-day total put/call ratio. Anything below .75 is typically considered very bearish and right now we have a reading of .68 which is the lowest reading in two years. Needless to say this indicator is also showing that option traders are too bullish.
10-Day Total Put/Call Ratio and SP500
One price based indicator that we use at The Macro Trader fairly extensively is what we call a reversion to the mean chart. Basically it takes a long term reading of the market, normalizes it, and then gives an overbought/oversold reading. We then plot one and two standard deviation lines above and below the mean. As you an see in the chart below we are about 1.5 standard deviations above the mean which is significantly higher than we saw for most of the 2002-2007 bull market suggesting that things are a bit overdone.
SP500 RTM Chart
Add to all of this a TD Sequential sell signal a few day ago and how near we are to a 50% retracement of the crash and things look less like a buying opportunity and more like a selling/shorting opportunity. Again we are not calling for a new low, just a pullback/correction.
Disclaimer-The Macro Trader is short the SPY-Sp500 ETF