The Macro Trader

Archive for July, 2010

New Tools At The Macro Trader

July 29th, 2010 Comments(0)

I wish I was great at writing ad copy so that this post could be a long sales letter with outlandish and baseless claims that make it sound as if we were releasing the holy grail and that you could make eight gazillion dollars off of our next great trading idea.  Instead we are a lot less hypey  (not sure if that is actually a word) and will instead just explain some of the new things that we are doing here at The Macro Trader.

Macro Trading 101- We are doing a re-launch of our free e-mail course on Macro 101.  Starting Thursday anyone who is signed up will be receiving at least one e-mail every three days with a 1-5 page covering some aspect of global macro trading, what it is, the benefits of it, etc.  While these e-mails will likely not make you the next Bruce Kovner or George Soros, we do hope that you find them informational and useful in how you view the markets.  If you would like to receive these e-mails simply put your e-mail in the box in the top right of this page.  Right now we have 20 planned lessons but will add more as time goes on.

Daily Updates-A few months ago we started to post a daily indicator update to our members area.  At first it changed a lot from day to day but we have it close to where we want it.  There will be a video describing what each indicator means and some of the ways that to use them.  Some are very simple like overbought/oversold levels of SP sectors while others very effective short term timing models for different asset classes.

Newsletter-Our primary product is our weekly newsletter The Macro Trader.  Published since November of 2007 each week we send out a letter with our analysis of what is happening in stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies.  In addition to our research we go over specific trading ideas that we follow in our model portfolio.  If you are interested in global macro we would of course encourage you to take a one month 4-issue trial of our service.  The cost for the trial is a whopping $1.  If you find that you enjoy our research and insights do nothing and you will be charged monthly, quarterly, or annually depending upon what you choose.   If on the other hand you find that we are not a good mix then jut log in via Paypal and unsubscribe.  To take a trial click on here.

Happy Trading,

Dave@TheMacroTrader.com

Take a $1 trial of The Macro Trader to receive unbiased actionable research.

Money Remains Too Tight

July 06th, 2010 Comments(1)

One of the many reasons why markets have been falling is due to the fact that the money supply has not kept up with the economy.  After stoking the fire in a big way during the crisis with bailout money, stimulus, and QE the economy finally started to take off.  At first the different forms of stimuli were doing enough but over the past few months it appears as though they have stopped keeping up with demand.  Now instead of enough, and arguable too much money in the streets the situation has reversed and now there is not nearly enough money out there to make up for the surge in economic output let alone to find its way into the markets.

In the chart below we have an indicator that measures the real money supply growth against economic output to determine if there is adequate money to sustain current economic growth and for the markets (This indicator came from a NDR chart we saw somewhere several years ago).  What we have done is take the year to year change in industrial production and subtract it from the year to year change of the real money supply using M3* data.  As you can see in the chart, money supply relative to industrial production has taken a huge dive indicating that we either need more QE, more government spending, or we will likely see a dip in output.

Real Money Supply (M3) minus Industrial Production (Year-to-Year Changes)

real-money-supply-m3-minus-industrial-production

Happy Trading,

Dave@TheMacroTrader.com

P.S.-Since M3 has been discontinued by the Fed we are now using the M3 data from NowandFutures which has reproduced it with a correlation of .99999 to the old M3 data.

Take a $1 trial of The Macro Trader to receive unbiased actionable research.