I wish I was great at writing ad copy so that this post could be a long sales letter with outlandish and baseless claims that make it sound as if we were releasing the holy grail and that you could make eight gazillion dollars off of our next great trading idea.  Instead we are a lot less hypey  (not sure if that is actually a word) and will instead just explain some of the new things that we are doing here at The Macro Trader.

Macro Trading 101- We are doing a re-launch of our free e-mail course on Macro 101.  Starting Thursday anyone who is signed up will be receiving at least one e-mail every three days with a 1-5 page covering some aspect of global macro trading, what it is, the benefits of it, etc.  While these e-mails will likely not make you the next Bruce Kovner or George Soros, we do hope that you find them informational and useful in how you view the markets.  If you would like to receive these e-mails simply put your e-mail in the box in the top right of this page.  Right now we have 20 planned lessons but will add more as time goes on.

Videos-We are starting to make some videos.  Over the weekend we will be uploading some short 5-15 minute videos that explain some of the charts and indicators that are proprietary to our newsletter and members area.  We will be going over the basic structure of the letter, risk indexes, industry group rankings, etc.  Starting next week we will also be doing a question and answer video once a week where we will go over questions from our newsletter subscribers and answering them.

Daily Updates-A few months ago we started to post a daily indicator update to our members area.  At first it changed a lot from day to day but we have it close to where we want it.  There will be a video describing what each indicator means and some of the ways that to use them.  Some are very simple like overbought/oversold levels of SP sectors while others very effective short term timing models for different asset classes.

Newsletter-Our primary product is our weekly newsletter The Macro Trader.  Published since November of 2007 each week we send out a letter with our analysis of what is happening in stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies.  In addition to our research we go over specific trading ideas that we follow in our model portfolio.  If you are interested in global macro we would of course encourage you to take a one month 4-issue trial of our service.  The cost for the trial is a whopping $1.  If you find that you enjoy our research and insights do nothing and you will be charged monthly, quarterly, or annually depending upon what you choose.   If on the other hand you find that we are not a good mix then jut log in via Paypal and unsubscribe.  To take a trial click on here.

Happy Trading,

Dave@TheMacroTrader.com

Take a $1 trial of The Macro Trader to receive unbiased actionable research.

Since launching The Macro Trader in November of 2007 our subscribers were able to avoid the crash of 2008 and while we were not as short as we would have liked we were profitable, all this in a year wen the SP500 was down -38.5%.  Recently we publicly called the downturn in the Euro in our blog post entitled “Is It Finally Time To Short The Euro“  as well as calling the correction in the stock market with our post “It’s Time For A Pullback In Stocks.”  While we definitely do not get everything right we do strive to provide some of the best and most actionable research available.

If you have been a blog reader and enjoy what you read then take a $1 trial to our weekly newsletter The Macro Trader.  Simply click on subscribe, pick your subscription and you will be given the first month for $1 and then either be billed monthly, quarterly, or annually depending upon what you choose.

In our weekly newsletter we cover stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies.  We run a model portfolio using ETF’s so that our research is accessible to both retail and institutional investors alike.  Every other week you will receive an extensive letter with tons of in depth research and on the other weeks you will receive a shorter version with summarized versions of our views and any new actionable trade ideas.  In addition to the weekly letter we also send out regular mid-week updates with trade ideas, research, commentary, etc.  If you want great research and actionable trade ideas spend the $1 for a one month trial, it is likely the lowest risk trade out there.

Happy Trading,

Dave@TheMacroTrader.com

After a 72% move higher in the SP500 a lot of bears are saying that the market has gone far enough and that we are due for a new crash that will take us back to and in some cases past the lows of 2008.  While a crash is possible and probably justified we are instead looking for something along the lines of a modest pullback to maybe a 10% correction.

One of our favorite sentiment indicators is that of put/call ratios.  We use the 5-day equity only put call ratio to warn of high risk areas and to point our low risk areas.  As you can see in the chart below we are currently at a reading of .51 which is not only below out “high risk” threshold but is also the lowest reading in over a year.  While the signal could be wrong it is hard to argue that options traders are not overly one sided right now.

5-Day Equity Put/Call Ratio and SP500

In case you want to see more bearish sentiment look no further than the 10-day total put/call ratio.  Anything below .75 is typically considered very bearish and right now we have a reading of .68 which is the lowest reading in two years.  Needless to say this indicator is also showing that option traders are too bullish.

10-Day Total Put/Call Ratio and SP500

One price based indicator that we use at The Macro Trader fairly extensively is what we call a reversion to the mean chart.  Basically it takes a long term reading of the market, normalizes it, and then gives an overbought/oversold reading.  We then plot one and two standard deviation lines above and below the mean.  As you an see in the chart below we are about 1.5 standard deviations above the mean which is significantly higher than we saw for most of the 2002-2007 bull market suggesting that things are a bit overdone.

SP500 RTM Chart

Add to all of this a TD Sequential sell signal a few day ago and how near we are to a 50% retracement of the crash and things look less like a buying opportunity and more like a selling/shorting opportunity.  Again we are not calling for a new low, just a pullback/correction.

Happy Trading,

Dave@TheMacroTrader.com

Disclaimer-The Macro Trader is short the SPY-Sp500 ETF

Since the start of our newsletter we have been using a relative strength table that looked at Fidelity Select Sector Funds to show what industry groups are leading and which groups are lagging.  The relative strength calculation is similar to the style used by Bill Oneil and IBD but is slightly shorter term in nature. We used the Fido Funds due the their price history and breadth of different groups.  Now that there are not only enough different industry group ETF’s, but also the needed price history we have revamped the model to use ETF’s instead.

We publish one list for United States industry groups and one that is focused on global ETF’s with several country and a few sector specific ETF’s.  These tables are valuable in a few ways.  One is that we have developed a trading model based upon them that uses the rankings along with buy, sell, and money management rules.  Over time this model has beaten the market with far less risk.  The other way that these tables are useful is that they show you what is strong and what is weak.

While this concept is not rocket science we are consistently surprised how little attention it is given by other traders.  By using relative strength we can see what is really working and where investors are going.  Many times the supposed “hot sector” is not really that hot.  By looking at the tables we can see what is really working and what is not.  For instance looking at the Global RS Ranking table below you can see the leaders and the laggards.  While it is no surprise that Brazil is at the top when was the last time you saw someone on CNBC telling you to buy Indonesia or Turkey?  Yeah we missed that segment as well. (click on table twice to enlarge)

Global RS Rankings

Right now this table is confirming to us that for the most part developed nations are weak and should be sold and that emerging markets are strong and should be bought.  No, this is not the first or the only tool that told us this same thing but it is one way in which we can systematically be long the best areas of the world and short the worst areas of the world.  It also gives us a road map of where investors are putting their money and where they are withdrawing it.

Another point worth noting is that while we are starting to run this as a “standalone system,” the system represents only a part of our portfolio.  In our trading and our newsletter model portfolio we use several different methods in order to build a less correlated portfolio trading across asset classes.

Happy Trading,

Dave@TheMacroTrader.com

Disclaimer-We are long EWZ-Brazil, EWT-Taiwan, and EWM-Malaysia

If you’re getting value out of our posts, you can do us a favor by linking to us and mentioning The Macro Trader to friends and co-workers. Here’s the link information for this article:
Title: Macro Trading Using Relative Stength
URL: http://www.themacrotrader.com/2009/11/10/macro-trading-relative-strength/

In our last post we discussed how we at The Macro Trader think that risk is vastly under-priced.  We looked at several different volatility indexes as well as Bill Luby and VixandMore.com’s JunkDEX.  The JunkDEX shows how well stocks like AIG, FNM, C, CIT, and BAC are doing.  As you can see in our previous post “Volatility Indexes, Risk Appetite, Mispriced Risk, And Where We Think We Are Headed” the JunkDEX  has had a monster rally.  Usually this would signal at least a short term top as speculative fever burns out.   Obviously the rally was not done and we are up since then.

To more quantitatively show the huge run up in risky assets we went looking for some factor based indexes that would show the performance of “good” and “bad” companies.  In our search we came across some custom stock baskets from Goldman Sachs that use Edward Altman’s famous Z-score to separate stocks into strong and weak balance sheet indexes.

The Altman Z-score uses 5 financial ratios.  Altman took the 5 ratios and using statistical techniques was able to build the Z-score which predicts a companies probability of failure.  The higher the score the safer the business is and the lower the score the more danger there is of insolvency.

As was to be expected the performance between the weak and the strong balance sheet stocks has been drastic over the last 6-months.  As you can see in the chart below the low Z-score basket has vastly outperformed the high Z-score basket.  In fact the weak balance sheet basket has done almost twice as good as the strong balance sheet basket of stocks. (click on chart to enlarge)

Goldman Sachs SP500 Strong and Weak Balance Sheet Baskets 6-Months

While the result is not too surprising it is an example of bad investor behavior.  Academics as well as practitioners have found time and time again that safe low volatility stocks outperform risky volatile stocks over a full market cycle.  In fact if you look at the chart below you can see how the roles between the strong and the weak balance sheet baskets are totally reversed.  The strong balance sheet stocks are positive for the last five years while the weak balance sheet stocks are still very negative.  Another thing to notice is that the junk stocks went down a lot faster and more consistently then the quality stocks when the market tanked over the last two years. (click on chart to enlarge)

Goldman Sachs SP500 Strong and Weak Balance Sheet Baskets 5-Years

So what are we to take from all of this?  We think that the market is far too speculative given the current economic backdrop.  Earnings while “better then expected” are at record lows, unemployment is at highs not seen since the depression, we are experiencing deflation for the first time in several decades, the consumer is retrenching and not consuming, and really the only true “green shoot” was that it is not yet the end of the world.

Yes, we can go higher from here but the odds do not favor being heavily long right now.  Our basic forecast at The Macro Trader is that in the not too distant future we will have a correction if not worse and we will be able to buy stocks at a better price then where they are currently sitting.

Happy Trading,

Dave@TheMacroTrader.com

Disclaimer-In The Macro Trader newsletter we are short some QQQQ-NASDAQ 100 ETF

If you’re getting value out of our posts, you can do us a favor by linking to us and mentioning The Macro Trader to friends and co-workers. Here’s the link information for this article:
Title: Is Risk Dead? Or Is This A Bear Market Junk Rally?
URL: http://www.themacrotrader.com/2009/09/11/is-risk-dead-global-macro-trader/

If over the past six months or so it has seemed as if you were partying like it was 1999 it might be time to reevaluate your stance.  One thing that we have been taking a closer look at lately is the pricing of risk.  Obviously when investors think that risks are low they will demonstrate risk seeking behavior.  We have seen this as the SP500 has climbed 56.6% from the March lows to the highs on 8/28/09.  With a rise like that you would think that 2008 never happened, of course if you believe that then you also believe  in a land of make believe with money trees, the fountain of youth, and SI models for all of us.

Of course some investors counter saying that while things could be better we are seeing the beginning of a recovery.  They then say that while the market will likely climb slower, that it will still climb higher.

While the above scenario is possible, anything is possible.  The more important question is to decide if the rewards outweigh the risk involved in being long equities right now.  Or even if at this point the better risk reward trade is to the downside.

Lets look at a few “risk gauges” or “fear indexes” as the press likes to call volatility indexes.  The first is of course the VIX.  After spiking to all time highs in October and November of 2008 we are already well on our way towards what was considered a “normal” level back in early 2008 before Bear Stearns.  The potential risks were obviously very mispriced at the beginning of 2008, are they mispriced again?  While likely not as off as they were at the beginning of 2008 we still think that there are a lot more real and potential risks then the market is currently pricing in. (Click on chart to enlarge)

SP500 VIX

What about foreign markets?  How do investors perceive the potential risks abroad?  Well if the VDAX is any gauge then investors see a rosy future in Europe as well.  Again maybe there are no big risks and maybe the EU is rock solid.  Then again maybe not.  With the complete lack of liquidity that businesses have had over the past several months in the EU it is really surprising that the VDAX is back to pre-crisis levels. (Click on chart to enlarge)

German DAX VIX

What about other asset classes?  What are investors saying about potential risks?  Using the MOVE Index which measures the range in which Treasury yields are expected to move over the next 12-months we can see that even here investors are becoming increasingly complacent.  What happened to the runaway inflation that we keep hearing is right around the corner?  Right now the market is saying that we will be in a 130 basis point range for the next 12-months. In The Macro Trader weekly newsletter we are long the TLT 20+ Year Treasury ETF and are expecting a bigger move then is currently implied via the MOVE index. (Click on chart to enlarge)

MOVE Index

Even in the currency markets we are seeing extreme complacency.  Apparently investors the world over are back to selling dollars in exchange for anything.  While the USD has its issues other currencies do to.  Right now the currency markets are not participating in the Keynes beauty pageant where you are trying to pick the girl that you think the judges will think is the beautiful.  No, with the current state of the global economy we are in the least ugly pig contest where we are only trying to find the least ugly.  That being said investors do not appear to see a lot of volatility any time soon. (Click on chart to enlarge)

JPM G-7 VIX

Even the emerging market currency volatility index is showing complacency. What happened to the banking issues in Eastern Europe? Apparently they vanished, or at least that is what it seems as though the market is telling us.  (Click on chart to enlarge)

JPM Emerging Market FX VIX

Even commodities markets are pricing in realtively low risk. While the price history of the Crude Oil and Gold volatility indexes does not go back as far as we would like, you can get a feel for what is happening as both indexes are dropping at a very steady rate.  Do investors really think that volatility will stay that low?  What happened to the oil spike if demand comes back?  And what happens if gold breaks $1000 on fears of hyper inflation?  (Click on charts to enlarge)

Crude Oil VIX

Gold VIX

Another excellent tool to evaluate the blind risk taking happening right now in the stock market is the JunkDEX invented by Bill Luby over at VIX and More.  By taking an equal weighting of junk stocks AIG, FNM, C, CIT, and BAC you can see how crazy or composed investors are acting. While we have seen, and actually use, an index of high momentum stocks we had never thought of making an index that tracks junk stocks to gauge investors risk appetite.

As you can see in the chart of the JunkDEX below the junk led the market off the bottom and then lagged until the last month when the index shot up +157.36% in a little over a month.  While it has pulled back over the last two days we are still in awe that investors are dumb enough to buy this junk at these prices. (Click on chart to enlarge)

VIX and More JunkDEX* vs SP500

After looking at all of this we need to ask ourselves if the rewards outweigh the risk to stay long?  Or if we should be flat or short.  In case you have not guessed we currently think that the risk reward is pointing to the downside.

Looking at the QQQQ we have a setup with a solid risk to reward situation. As you can see in the chart below the QQQQ has rallied back to its 50% retracement level, its 200-week moving average, and its downtrend line extending from October 2007.  While it could of course rally higher we like the risk reward enough to have put on a modest short position in our weekly Macro Trader newsletter. (Click on chart to enlarge)

QQQQ-NASDAQ 100 ETF

While not quite as nice of a setup as the NASDAQ 100, the SP500 also looks like a solid risk reward trade to the short side.  As you can see in the chart below of the SPY-SP500 ETF it has rallied up to the upper Bollinger Band and has already started to come back in.  We are looking for a move back to at least the $95-96 area. (Click on chart to enlarge)

SPY SP500 ETF

Obviously anything can happen.  The market could go up every day for the next year, or it could go down every day, but our job as traders is to look for the best risk to reward scenarios that we can find and place trades on probable scenarios and right now we think the most likely scenario is for the market to at least have a pullback if not a correction back towards its 200-day moving average.  Of course if this happens we will see the volatility indexes tick upwards to more realistic levels given our current economic environment.

*Our JunkDEX differs a bit from the one you can see at VIX and More.  After looking into it we found that  we built the index by simulating a $1000 investment in the index and in the SPY and Bill built it by normalizing the index starting value so we have slightly different values.  But don’t worry as the chart looks essentially the same and shows the same investor insanity.

Happy Trading,

Dave@TheMacroTrader.com

Disclaimer-In The Macro Trader newsletter as well as our accounts we are currently short some QQQQ-NASDAQ 100 ETF and long some TLT 20+ Year Treasury ETF.

If you’re getting value out of our posts, you can do us a favor by linking to us and mentioning The Macro Trader to friends and co-workers. Here’s the link information for this article:
Title: Volatility Indexes, Risk Appetite, Mispriced Risk, And Where We Think We Are Headed
URL: http://www.themacrotrader.com/2009/09/02/mispriced-risk-macro-trader

One of our favorite, as well as one of the best indicators that investors can follow is that of interest rates.  Since we are global macro traders we follow interest rates across the globe for every country that we can find reliable data.  We track short and long rates for 58 different countries for use in many of our models as well as for other indicators like global and regional yield curves.

As you can see in the chart below (click to enlarge) short term rates for the G-10 are low.  In fact right now there are five countries that are following a zirp (zero interest rate policy) and consequently their 90 day rates are down under .5%.

G-10 Short Term Interest Rates

After dropping significantly throughout the second half of 2008 as Government Bonds went into the stratosphere, rates have since recovered quite a bit during 2009.  As we mentioned in a previous post on Treasury Bonds we think that just like rates overshot to the downside they have also overshot to the upside.  With recent comments by the Fed that essentially said that they will not be raising rates for the next year…or two, we are a bit taken back by the sell off in Treasuries the past few days.  (click to enlarge)

G-10 Long Term Interest Rates

The chart below  (click to enlarge) shows the average 90-Day and 10-Year government yield for the G-10.  In our view this chart shows how the ECB was very slow to lower rates while still preoccupied with the fear of inflation in the fall of 2008.  Looking back, and even at the time, this view was ludicrous as everything on the planet was dropping like a rock.  In fact the world at one point had lost 42% of its wealth.  Obvioulsy rates were eventually lowered but we were, and still are a bit amazed by the lack of understanding shown at the depths of the crisis by Jean Claude Trichet and his crew.

G-10 Short and Long Rates

Here is the chart (click to enlarge) of the G-10 GDP weighted yield curve.  As you can see it is extremely steep with the spread at 2.63% after having been negative back in late 2007.  Remember back in 2007 when people were saying that this time it was different and that the economy was great?  Well they were wrong and the yield curve gave a big neon flashing warning signal.  We were fortunate in that by heeding its cry we were able to not only preserve capital but actually generate positive returns in 2007 and 2008.

G-10 GDP Weighted Yield Curve

Finally here is the Global GDP Weighted Yield Curve (click to enlarge).  Using the country weightings in the MSCI index it is made up of 40 different countries. It has hit new highs this week at 2.20%.

Global GDP Weighted Yield Curve

Happy Trading,

The Macro Trader

Dave@TheMacroTrader.com

TheMacroTrader.com

If you’re getting value out of our posts, you can do us a favor by linking to us and mentioning The Macro Trader to friends and co-workers. Here’s the link information for this article:
Title: Global Interest Rate Trends
URL: http://www.themacrotrader.com/2009/07/16/global-interest-rates

We decided that it was worth sharing our views of the inflation/deflation debate with all of our readers.  In our weekly newsletter we are already positioned to take advantage of some of the current as well as potential trends that will benefit from our scenario.

The following are our views on different parts of the puzzle that show that we are currently in, and will likely be experiencing deflation for longer then most people seem to think.

Savings-

Here are some interesting, and unfortunately not surprising, savings rate numbers.  The current savings rate is 5.7%, the all time high in 5/1/75 was 14.6%, the all time low was in 8/1/05 with a savings rate of -2.7%, the historical average is 6.8%, and the 10-Year average is 1.7%.  As you can see in the chart the past year has seen a huge uptick in the savings rate as consumers are trying to pay off debt and save some money.

Personal Saving Rate

Of course as savings go up spending goes down.  While this is good for the individual household it is a negative for the overall economy as it means less money is being spent on items from housing to cars to clothes.  While this could just be an abnormal blip in the scheme of things there are several reasons to think that this time the trend will hold for a while.

Baby boomers as a group don’t have anywhere near the funds to retire.  After 2008 wiped out 42% of the worlds wealth they should be scared and saving for their rapidly approaching retirements.  Once the economy starts to pick up they may very well start spending like it was 1999 again but we don’t think that they will because while most people are ok with the idea of working a bit past the age of 65, they do not plan on working into their 80’s and 90’s.

If the savings rate gets back up to the historical average of 6.8% or higher and then stays there for a while, it will be a huge drag on the economy. As consumers buy less and less, pricing will likely come down.  We are already seeing this in the form of huge sales in stores across the nation.  Many retailers have already had several markdown sales and it is safe to assume that this trend will continue for at least the next year or so.  If our projections are right and the savings rate gets back to “normal” we will likely see a re-pricing as most businesses just accept that fact that their profit margins will be smaller going forward.

Housing-

The monthly proclamations of a bottom by the NAR notwithstanding we have yet to see anything resembling a bottom in real estate. The Case Shiller 10-City index is down 33% from its peak and the 20-City index is down 32%.  Both charts look the same, which is to say each month is lower then the last month.  So far there has been no bottom.

Case Shiller 10-City Index

Not surprisingly housing sales numbers don’t look much better.  In spite of the monthly bottom calling we continue to see more new lows every few months.  As you can see in the chart below we are just off of new all time lows since the data series started in 1963.

SA Housing Sales

Zooming in a bit you can see that while we have had several blips over the last few years none of them have lasted for more then a few months and all have led to new lows. Our best guess is that we are headed lower in the next few months.

SA Housing Sales-A Closer Look

As if residential housing was not enough, the commercial real estate market is playing catch up.  Residential peaked in June 2006 and commercial held up until October of 2007.  Since October of last year however commercial has made a valiant effort to catch up and is now down -29.48% since then.  In fact from March to April alone it dropped -8.62%.  If real estate has found at bottom it is keeping its location secret because none of the data that we have seen points to it.

Moody’s REAL Commercial Property Price Index Composite(CPPI)

Of course you may be thinking that there has to be some commercial real estate that has found a bottom.  This may be the case on a geographic basis but it is definitely not the case when it comes to segments of the commercial market.  As you can see in the chart below industrial is the strongest part of the market and yet it is still down -14.26% from its highs.  Apartments are next being down -19.01%, followed by retail which is down -23.11%, and finally office space which is down a whopping -30.22%.  Judging by the massive drop this last quarter it is safe to assume that we have a ways to go before we really hit the bottom.

Moody’s REAL Commercial Property Price Indices

Employment-

In case you haven’t noticed employment has been horrible and getting worse.  One of the newest “in indicators” is the exhaustion rate.  While this indicator is not new it has luckily not garnered much attention over the years because it only gives a real signal once or twice a decade.  The exhaustion rate is the rate at which people come off, or exhaust, their unemployment benefits without having securing a job.  Why is this the “it indicator” right now?  Well if you look at the chart below you can see that we are not only at all time highs but are actually at 49.23%.  Yes, that means that almost half of the unemployed are done receiving unemployment money.  That of course leads to even less money to spend on anything.

Exhaustion Rate

After looking at the exhaustion rate chart it should come as now surprise that unemployment is high.  In fact it is at its second highest level ever at 9.4%.  As bad as unemployment is right now, it is going to get worse before it gets better.  We will likely hit at least 11% ,and we would not be surprised to see 12-14% unemployment before jobs data bottoms out.

Unemployment Rate

At this point it should not be much of a surprise but as you can see in the chart below, average weekly hours and non farm payrolls data are also both declining on a year over year basis.

Average Weekly Hours and Non Farm Payrolls

So how does all of this effect deflation?  If people are not working then they are not able to spend as much on consumer goods and services.  That includes clothing, food, entertainment, transportation, etc.  If they stay unemployed long enough and fall off of their unemployment benefits then they are able to spend even less.  Along with the lack of, or at least severely impaired, spending power there is a host of other side effects, which includes everything from defaulting on credit cards to defaulting on their mortgages.  As consumers spend less, businesses have to lay off more employees as sales drop off and margins are squeezed with exacerbates the situation.  One consistent relationship is that of the unemployment rate and capacity utilization.  As unemployment rises, capacity utilization drops as demand falls out.

Unemployment and Capacity Utilization (inverted)

If there is no demand then there is no spending.  If no one is spending then there can be no inflation.  If things are contracting then we are in deflation.  One more indicator that shows this is that of the output gap. The output gap is the difference between the amount that we can produce and the amount that we are currently producing.  In the chart below a positive number indicates under-utilization, and negative numbers reflect over-utilization.  If the line is rising things are getting worse and if it is declining things are improving.  As you can see the line has risen quite a bit and at least for now is showing no signs of turning around.  The output gap is a good indication of available demand.  As you can see. the output gap is bad and getting worse as demand continues to decline.

5-Year Output Gap

Banking-

While we could go on and on about banking we will try and keep it short.  Most people are pointing to the charts from the Fed on bank reserves and saying that they will cause hyper inflation.  Yes, the monetary base is at historic highs but guess what?  Until that money is actually in circulation it does not cause inflation.  You can print ten quadrillion dollars but if you bury it in a hole then it does not cause inflation.

Look at the chart below of the Adjusted Reserves.  As you can see it is at record high levels.  While it is extremely high it is not in circulation yet and likely will not make it to consumers for some time.

Adjusted Reserves

This number is extremely high due to all of the money that has been printed over the past year in response to the financial crisis.  But the inflationistas are missing one important point, namely that until banks have rebuilt their reserves they will not be lending.  As long as residential and commercial mortgage defaults continue banks will continue to rebuild their balance sheets.  Once they have a stable asset base they will start lending and we will likely see some really high inflation but until then we will be in a deflationary environment as the money is not being put into circulation.

Commodities-

Commodities are another reason that many use to justify their inflation arguments.  After having a good bull market from the end of 2002 until fall of 2007, they took off and got a bit parabolic for the first half of 2008 before crashing and coming back to levels not seen since 2002. Of course as anyone who has filled up their gas tank knows, commodities have started to climb once again moving from 200 up to 250 from the March lows.

Commodity Research Bureau Index

The rise has been widespread with energy, base metals, agriculturals, and even precious metals rising considerably.  Aside from precious metals it appears as though the primary reason that we had such a strong rebound was due to buying out of China.  In the first two quarters of the year the Chinese government decided to use some of their surplus to buy raw materials.  They bought a lot of copper, secured oil contracts, and stocked up on everything else.  Now it appears as though their buying is slowing to a trickle of what it was and with the run up in prices they are taking a break as they will likely get to buy more at lower levels.

While the buying out of China may help commodities put in a bottom, it does not appear as though it will drive them much higher.  With the possible exceptions of precious metals and energy we see most commodities turning in flat to slightly negative results for the rest of the year.  With the demand destruction that we have seen over the past year commodities have a tough road ahead of them before they will be able to climb higher.

Deflation-

So where does all this leave us?  Demand has been absolutely crushed on several fronts:  People are finally saving and paying down debt instead of spending.  Real estate is still falling, and with inventories as high as they are, will likely not fully recover for years.  Employment is as bad as at any time in the Post WW2 era.  Banks are still impaired and unable/scared to lend.  And with all this demand destruction commodities are unlikely to continue upwards for a while.

Finally there is the matter that while we can speculate on inflation we are currently in deflation as can be seen in the chart below of the CPI.  We have officially been in deflation for the last three months and while it might slowdown a bit we will likely stay in a deflationary environment for longer then most people think.

CPI-YoY % Change 1922-Now

What are we doing?

So if we believe that we are in deflation what do we do about it?  The best deflation trade that we have found is to be long bonds.  As we stated in our last blog post as well as the last few newsletter we are long TLT-20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF.  Not only are we in deflation but the trade was decent on its own merits.

Real yields on Treasury bonds at the end of May were at their highest levels since February 1995 and right now they are at 4.76% for the 10-Year and 5.58% for the 30-Year.  In an environment where we expect most assets to fall or go nowhere, we think that Treasury Bonds offer good value.

10-Year Treasury Bond Real Yield

Treasury bonds got almost as oversold recently as they were overbought back at the end of 2008.  By normalizing the trend using a 200-day moving average we build reversion to the mean charts that show how far above or below securities are from their mean.  In the case of the long bond our charts showed that it was extremely oversold and that it was a good time to start building a position.

TYX-30-Year Treasury Bond Yield Reversion to the Mean Chart

Looking at the chart of the TLT we could see it running up into the 100-105 range over the next month or two as investors take advantage of deflation, the oversold conditions, and the favorable real yield.

TLT 20+ Year Treasury ETF

While the long bond is definitely our favorite deflation trade, it also makes some sense to go long the US Dollar and/or the Japanese Yen as investors flock towards safety.  Other trades would be to short stocks and short commodities in anticipation of them falling as demand continues to decline and margins shrink.

And what about inflation?  We actually do believe that eventually all of this printed money will lead to some hefty inflation but right now we are in deflation.   Additionally the inflation trade is  the most overcrowded and one sided trade in the financial markets right now.  If we are right we will do well, and with the aid of risk management if we are wrong we will be stopped out for a small loss.

Happy Trading,

The Macro Trader

Dave@TheMacroTrader.com

Disclaimer-We currently hold positions in TLT

If you’re getting value out of our posts, you can do us a favor by linking to us and mentioning The Macro Trader to friends and co-workers. Here’s the link information for this article:
Title: Deflation And What We Are Doing About It
URL: http://www.themacrotrader.com/2009/06/27/deflation-and-what-we-are-doing-about-it/

Long term Treasury yields have been in a 30 year downtrend. As you can see in the chart below we are testing this downtrend line right now.

30-Year Treasury Yield

Why are yields rising?  There are a variety of reasons, each at least partially true.  One of the primary reasons that investors have been dumping bonds as of late is due to the fact that the government has been printing money as fast as ever, and spending it even faster.  This can, and likley will, lead to some strong inflation down the road.  That being said we think that the inflation trade is a bit overdone for now as it appears as though we will be in a deflationary state for at least the rest of the year.

Another major reason that bonds have been selling off is due to the fact that the United States has far more unfunded libailitis then it can hope to pay off without some major dollar devaluation.  While we have years to go before an eventual and inevitable credit downgrade, we think that it is a near certaintly that it will happen.

The last major reason for investors to be selling off Treasury bonds is due to the fact that they yields were simply too low.  Who wants to lend money for 30 years at 2.6%?  In anything less then an all out depression a yield of 2.6% is terrible.  Consequently bond investors started to leave Treasuries,  and have continued to leave as they go into investment grade corporate bonds, junk bonds, and municipal bonds.  This selloff in bonds has of course caused yields to climb higher and higher, finally hitting one year highs.

Due to the violent selling in long term Treasuries we see some potential on the long side.  Yes, long term we are bearish and feel that they have only begun a multi year fall from grace.  But for now they are extremely oversold and we see a solid risk to reward opportunity.

The chart below shows the 30-Year yield, the distance from the 200-day moving average, and both the 1 and 2 standard deviations from the historic mean.  Essentially this chart shows how oversold or overbought yields are in relation to its historic relationships with its 200-day moving average.  As you can see in this chart we have gone from a drastically oversold condition into a drastically overbought condition.  Remember that this chart shows the yield of the 30-Year bonds so it is charted inversely to the actual bonds.

TYX 30-Year Reversion to the Mean

As seen in the long term chart of the 30-Year yield we are right at a 30 year resistance line.  While we will eventually break above that line, for now we are looking for a strong rebound.  Looking at the chart below of the TLT 20+ Year Treasury ETF we have drawn two different lines.  The first line is a short term downtrend line that is right at $96.  The second line is just short of $100 and is a major area of resistance.  Essentially we are looking for a pullback into one if not both of these areas.  In our model portfolio we are already long and are looking to sell if we can hit either of our targets.

TLT 20+ Year Treasury ETF

Happy Trading,

The Macro Trader

Dave@TheMacroTrader.com

Disclaimer-We currently have a position in TLT

If you’re getting value out of our posts, you can do us a favor by linking to us and mentioning The Macro Trader to friends and co-workers. Here’s the link information for this article:
Title: Our Macro View On Treasury Bonds
URL: http://www.themacrotrader.com/2009/06/16/our-macro-view-on-treasury-bonds/

In our ETF based newsletter, the carry trade is one of the strategies that we employ.  For those unfamiliar with the carry trade, you are essentially trading the interest rate differentials of different countries.  You short a low-yielding currency and go  long a higher-yielding currency.

You can make money in two ways.  You earn the “carry” if the currencies remain very stable, and neither move.  You can also make money in this trade by being correct in the direction.  For instance if you are short the Japanese Yen and long the Australian dollar, then you can also make money if the Australian dollar goes up, and the Yen goes down.

As an example of how to earn the carry, lets look at the Japanese Yen versus the Australian Dollar.  The Yen has been the carry trade vehicle of choice for much of the past decade because Japan has consistently had extremely low interest rates.  Australia, on the other hand, has had relatively high rates over the last decade.

To construct the differential for this trade, take one rate and subtract the other rate. In the chart below, we plot the difference between the AUD and the Yen since the beginning of 2007.  As you can see, at one point the carry was as high as 7.34, but it has since declined to 2.69.  If you had been long the AUD and short the Yen, you would have earned this interest rate differential the whole time.

AUD-JPY Interest Rate Differential

Of course as we already mentioned, in order to make money on the carry trade, your long must outperform or stay flat relative to your short position in order to make money since a big directional move against you will wipe away any gains that you would be making solely off the carry.

There have been several academic studies as well as real world trading results that show that volatility is the biggest risk that the carry trade faces.  Over the years, most studies were stuck using the SP500 VIX as a proxy for global financial market volatility.  While it correlates quite well, there are now some far better options to help track and manage risk in the currency markets.  We at The Macro Trader use the JP Morgan G-7 VIX index for our carry trading model as it correlates extremely well to the volatility in the DBV-Currency Harvest Trust ETF.

What we first found in the academic literature, later confirmed by our own testing and used successfully in our trading, was that when volatility in the currency markets is flat or declining, the carry trade works very well.  On the other hand, when currency volatility is high, the carry trade typically is a money loser because the directional aspect of the trade overwhelms the carry, giving you a loss.

We look at the JP Morgan G-7 VIX using two different charts.  The first one is a reversion to the mean chart where plot the VIX data, the historic mean, then one and two standard deviations above and below the mean.  When volatility is high and then falls below one standard deviation, we start looking to enter the carry trade and when it get above the one standard deviation line we would sell if not already stopped out.  On the downside, we look to sell when volatility declines too much since it represents excessive complacency and usually is a sign of higher volatility ahead.

JP Morgan G-7 VIX

The other way that we like to look at the currency VIX is to invert it on a chart alongside the DBV. As you can see in the below chart, not only was equity volatility declining, but DBV managed to base for a few months before climbing higher and then consolidating at its 200-day moving average.  Finally today it was able to break out to the upside.

DBV and JPM G-7 VIX

Finally we have the DBV itself.  As you can see in the chart below, not only was equity volatility declining, but DBV managed to base for a few months before climbing higher and then consolidating at its 200-day moving average.  Finally today it broke out to the upside.

DBV-Carry Trade ETF

Hopefully you see how volatility is bad for a lazy trade like the carry trade where you trying to get paid for sitting.  If volatility climbs above 1 standard deviation above its mean we will look to tighten our stops as the odds of a downside move increase significantly.

DBV-G-10 Currency Harvest Fund is an ETF that goes long the three highest yielding currencies of the G-10 and shorts the three lowest yielding currencies on a 2x levered basis.  While investors can go into the spot and futures FX markets and put on the same trade the DBV is a very simple way to gain exposure to positive carry in the currency markets.

Happy Trading,

Dave@TheMacroTrader.com

http://TheMacroTrader.com

Disclaimer-We currently hold positions in the DBV-G10 Currency Harvest Fund and FXA-Australian Dollar ETF.

If you’re getting value out of our posts, you can do us a favor by linking to us and mentioning The Macro Trader to friends and co-workers. Here’s the link information for this article:
Title: The Carry Trade And Volatility
URL: http://www.themacrotrader.com/2009/06/01/the-carry-trade-and-volatility/