The Macro Trader http://www.themacrotrader.com Global Macro Research and Analytics Fri, 21 Nov 2008 02:40:45 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3 en One Month Free Trial http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheMacroTrader/~3/460272599/ http://www.themacrotrader.com/2008/11/20/one-month-free-trial/#comments Fri, 21 Nov 2008 02:40:45 +0000 admin http://www.themacrotrader.com/2008/11/20/one-month-free-trial/ When someone wants to see what we do we usually just e-mail them the last few issues.  We are now offering a 1-month free trial.  If you would like to receive The Macro Trader for one month simply e-mail Editor@TheMacroTrader.com

Happy Trading,

The Macro Trader

]]> http://www.themacrotrader.com/2008/11/20/one-month-free-trial/feed/ http://www.themacrotrader.com/2008/11/20/one-month-free-trial/ Equity Risk Index http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheMacroTrader/~3/459527817/ http://www.themacrotrader.com/2008/11/20/equity-risk-index-4/#comments Thu, 20 Nov 2008 12:47:54 +0000 admin http://www.themacrotrader.com/2008/11/20/equity-risk-index-4/ Our stock market risk index did not change this week and remains at 25%. In simple terms the lower the reading the more bearish we are and the higher the reading the more bullish we are. As you can see in the chart we have been fairly bearish for most of the year.

stock market risk index

Most of the economic indicators we follow are very bearish, the trend is down, breadth is poor, and money flows are negative.  On the bullish side sentiment is at extreme lows and valuations continue to improve.  We expect a rally here in the next few days but long term are still fairly bearish.

Happy Trading,

The Macro Trader

P.S. If you want to ensure that you receive every update make sure and subscribe by RSS or E-mail by clicking on the RSS button on the right hand side of the page.

P.S.S. This is usually posted by Monday of each week but due to travel delays it was late this week.

]]> http://www.themacrotrader.com/2008/11/20/equity-risk-index-4/feed/ http://www.themacrotrader.com/2008/11/20/equity-risk-index-4/ Equity Risk Index http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheMacroTrader/~3/451338966/ http://www.themacrotrader.com/2008/11/12/equity-risk-index-3/#comments Thu, 13 Nov 2008 02:33:34 +0000 admin http://www.themacrotrader.com/2008/11/12/equity-risk-index-3/ Our stock market risk index did not change this week and remains at 25%. In simple terms the lower the reading the more bearish we are and the higher the reading the more bullish we are. As you can see in the chart we have been fairly bearish for most of the year.

Stock market risk gauge

If you have read our previous posts you know our active beta approach to managing some of the model portfolio.  The risk index is one of the primary inputs as to how much to invest.  Our complete model is a bit different but essentially you would invest X% of your account depending upon how bullish or bearish the model is.  Using this risk index you would only have 25% of your money at risk right now.  Since it dynamically changes depending upon what it expects out of the market it is not only a useful timing gauge but also helps measure the proper position size and asset allocation.

Hopefully this short explanation helps some of the answers that we have received lately regarding the risk index.  If you have more questions feel free to e-mail us.

Happy Trading,

The Macro Trader

P.S. If you want to ensure that you receive every update make sure and subscribe by RSS or E-mail by clicking on the RSS button on the right hand side of the page.

P.S.S. This is usually posted by Monday of each week but due to travel delays it was late this week.

]]> http://www.themacrotrader.com/2008/11/12/equity-risk-index-3/feed/ http://www.themacrotrader.com/2008/11/12/equity-risk-index-3/ Equity Risk Index http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheMacroTrader/~3/441328728/ http://www.themacrotrader.com/2008/11/03/equity-risk-index-2/#comments Mon, 03 Nov 2008 20:06:27 +0000 admin http://www.themacrotrader.com/2008/11/03/equity-risk-index-2/ Our stock market risk index improved a bit this week.  The bulk of the improvements came from some of our sentiment indicators.  So now we have valuation improving and sentiment at an extreme.  In the newsletter we are positioned for a short term bounce but longer term we are still bearish.

Macro Trading stock market risk index

Happy Trading,

The Macro Trader

]]> http://www.themacrotrader.com/2008/11/03/equity-risk-index-2/feed/ http://www.themacrotrader.com/2008/11/03/equity-risk-index-2/ Equity Risk Index http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheMacroTrader/~3/433417335/ http://www.themacrotrader.com/2008/10/27/equity-risk-index/#comments Mon, 27 Oct 2008 09:56:29 +0000 admin http://www.themacrotrader.com/2008/10/27/equity-risk-index/ Nothing really changed this week in our Equity Risk Index.  We are still only 12.50% bullish which of course means that we are very bearish.  When the index is this bearish we basically step aside or go short.  Right now there are some relative yield and sentiment indicators that are slightly bullish but not one model that we follow is actually on a buy signal.

Equity Risk Index

We will continue to update our Equity Risk Index each week on the site.  Among our many proprietary tools that we use at The Macro Trader  we also have risk indexes for fixed income, precious metals, and currency markets.  If you have any questions feel free to e-mail us.  If you want to get the risk index as well as our other posts in your RSS reader just click on the RSS button on the right hand side of the page.  And of course if you have any questions regarding the newsletter simply shoot us an e-mail.

Happy Trading,

The Macro Trader

]]> http://www.themacrotrader.com/2008/10/27/equity-risk-index/feed/ http://www.themacrotrader.com/2008/10/27/equity-risk-index/ Equity Risk Meter http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheMacroTrader/~3/426374623/ http://www.themacrotrader.com/2008/10/20/equity-risk-meter/#comments Mon, 20 Oct 2008 12:35:18 +0000 admin http://www.themacrotrader.com/2008/10/20/equity-risk-meter/ Our Equity Risk Meter essentially measures how bullish or bearish we are towards the US Markets.   The higher the reading the less risk there is in the market and the lower it goes the more risk there is.

Right now for instance the meter is reading 12.5%, which is very bearish.  As you can see we have been bearish for some time now and very bearish since mid June, enabling us to avoid almost all of the downturn in the stock market.  When the meter starts to climb we become more and more bullish and look towards the longside.  For now we are essentially on the sidelines sitting in cash.

Equity Risk Meter

We will be posting our risk meter for US equities each week.  If you would like to follow it you can either come to the site each week or simply subscribe to our RSS feed.  Using RSS you will be able to either receive our posts as an e-mail or in your RSS reader.

Happy Trading,

The Macro Trader